“南京现在发现的171例新冠确诊病例基本上都完成疫苗接种,有7例‘危重症”

superlover

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这么高高比例的危重症,
说明中国国产疫苗防不了印度变种导致重症,
怀疑是不是有ADE,我经常在坛子叨唠这个
 

superlover

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祈祷老向平安归来
 

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抗体依赖增强作用 (Antibody-dependent enhancement)​



简介​

说明​

抗体依赖增强作用 是指一些次优的抗体与病毒结合后,不仅不能防止病毒侵入人体细胞,反而会增强病毒感染免疫细胞、促进病毒在体内的复制,恶化疾病的严重度或诱发更严重的额外征候。
 

superlover

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好像飞老接种的是mRNA
 

茶马盐铁

我想看看自定义头衔到底能有多少字。继续加,看系统什么时候把这个字符串截断。呃,居然还有?那就继续吧。
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这么高高比例的危重症,
说明中国国产疫苗防不了印度变种导致重症,
怀疑是不是有ADE,我经常在坛子叨唠这个
4%,这个比例并不高啊!

换个角度看, 中国疫苗针对Delta的有效率达到96%, 这个成绩非常好了。
 
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神经过的渥太华

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4%,这个比例并不高啊!

换个角度看, 中国疫苗针对Delta的有效率达到96%, 这个成绩非常好了。
你这个已经够高了,基数应该按14亿人算,至少应该按南京人口算,最高应该几千万分之四吧。
 

茶马盐铁

我想看看自定义头衔到底能有多少字。继续加,看系统什么时候把这个字符串截断。呃,居然还有?那就继续吧。
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你这个已经够高了,基数应该按14亿人算,至少应该按南京人口算,最高应该几千万分之四吧。
没错, 南京7例重症, 等于说中国14亿人, 现在发现只有7个重症。

这么高高比例的危重症,
说明中国国产疫苗防不了印度变种导致重症,
怀疑是不是有ADE,我经常在坛子叨唠这个

什么叫 “这么高高比例的危重症” ?

1627653549804.png


我们可以巴基数缩小一些, 14亿是整个人口, 10亿剂注射下去, 等于是5亿人完成了两针注射。

5亿分之7


这是巨大的成功好不好。
 

贵圈

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老向之后。
 

billwanhua

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Vaccines prevent more than 90% of severe disease, but may be less effective at preventing infection, they said, making community spread among the vaccinated more likely. The document said 35,000 symptomatic infections are occurring per week among 162 million vaccinated Americans.
在162M打了疫苗的人当中,每周有症状感染的感染大概3万5,,这个每周突破很高。美国还有1/4-1/10 的已经感染过自然免疫的,相当于打了灭活
Separately, the CDC has said that 5,914 fully vaccinated people have been hospitalized or died with Covid infections as of July 19, the most recent data available. Breakthrough cases, which occur in the fully vaccinated, happen more frequently in congregate settings, and in groups at risk of primary vaccine failure, according to the document.

People infected with the delta variant carry up to 1,000 times more virus in their nasal passages than other strains, resulting in higher transmissibility, even among the vaccinated, according to federal health officials. The CDC noted studies in Canada, Singapore and Scotland that showed higher odds of hospitalization, ICU admission, oxygen needs, pneumonia or death among people infected with the delta variant.

- Delta变种的传染性超过SARS、普通感冒、流感、西班牙流感、天花,传染性跟水痘差不多。
- 来自麻省未发表的数据显示,无论有没有接种疫苗,Delta感染者的病毒载量是差不多的。接种疫苗后的感染者有可能会像没有接种疫苗的感染者那样,具有传播病毒、感染他人的能力。而在Delta之前,普遍认为接种疫苗后的感染者病毒载量较低、基本不传播。
- 来自加拿大、新加坡、苏格兰的数据显示,Delta可能导致更严重的症状,住院、ICU、死亡的概率都更高。

这个变异是个怪胎,做个研究而不仅仅盯着中国难吗
 
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lindamy

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美国CDC7月19日的报道,161 millions 完全疫苗免疫人群中,5916人感染,其中住院患者5601,占95%,死亡1141,占19%.


ABC 7月26日报道,156 millions 完全疫苗免疫人群中,有症状感染者153,000, 略低于千分之一。

这两篇报道相差非常大,CDC疫苗突破感染,包括无症状患者,比例:5916 / 161 millions = 37 / million. ABC的报道,有症状突破疫苗感染比例:153,000 / 156 millions = 981 / million,不谈有无症状的差别,这两个统计相差26.5倍。

接种新冠疫苗后突破性感染的住院 or 死亡病例报告​

来源: 饿狼陀 于 2021-07-29 05:06:59

Hospitalized or fatal COVID-19 vaccine breakthrough cases reported to CDC as of July 19, 2021​

As of July 19, 2021, more than 161 million people in the United States had been fully vaccinated against COVID-19.

During the same time, CDC received reports from 49 U.S. states and territories of 5,914 patients with COVID-19 vaccine breakthrough infection who were hospitalized or died.

Total number of vaccine breakthrough infections reported to CDC

Hospitalized or fatal vaccine breakthrough casoes reported to CDC5,914
Female2,881(49%)
People aged ≥65 years4,392(74%)
Asymptomatic infections1,164(20%)
Hospitalizations*5,601(95%)
Deaths†1,141(19%)
*1,529 (27%) of 5,601 hospitalizations reported as asymptomatic or not related to COVID-19.
†292 (26%) of 1,141 fatal cases reported as asymptomatic or not related to COVID-19.
Previous data on all vaccine breakthrough cases reported to CDC from January–April 2021 are available.


Symptomatic breakthrough COVID-19 infections rare, CDC data estimates​

Breakthroughs are expected and represent about 0.098% of those fully vaccinated.
ByArielle Mitropoulos
26 July 2021, 07:01

Breakthrough COVID-19 infections explained

The risk of getting severely ill from COVID-19 after receiving a vaccine is low, according to experts.

Although reports of breakthrough COVID-19 cases occurring among fully vaccinated Americans are garnering much attention, as the country experiences a viral resurgence, new data illustrates just how rare these breakthrough infections are likely to be, and further shows that the vast majority of those becoming severely ill are the unvaccinated.

“While anecdotal cases and clusters can conjure concern around the vaccine, when put in the larger context of how many people have been vaccinated and the sheer volume of cases in the unvaccinated population, we recognize that the vaccines are working and how rare breakthroughs actually are,” said Dr. John Brownstein, the chief innovation officer at Boston Children's Hospital and an ABC News contributor.

With more than 156 million Americans fully vaccinated, nationwide, approximately 153,000 symptomatic breakthrough cases are estimated to have occurred as of last week, representing approximately 0.098% of those fully vaccinated, according to an unpublished internal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention document obtained by ABC News. These estimates reflect only the adult population and do not include asymptomatic breakthrough infections.

MORE: Statistics show the stark risks of not getting vaccinated against COVID-19

Substantial vaccination coverage amid increasing COVID-19 case rates are driving an increase in "expected" symptomatic breakthrough infections in recent weeks, the CDC wrote in the document.

A person receives a nasal test at a COVID-19 testing and vaccination site at Barnett Park in Orla...Read More
Experts stress that no vaccine can provide 100% protection, but they are still very effective at preventing severe illness and death.

“The risk to fully vaccinated people is dramatically less than that to unvaccinated individuals. The occurrence of breakthrough cases is expected and, at this point, is not at a level that should raise any concerns about the performance of the currently available vaccines,” Matthew Ferrari, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics at Pennsylvania State University, told ABC News.

“Some vaccinated folks may still get infected, some may still transmit. And the more vaccinated people there are, the more breakthrough cases we’ll see,” he added.

MORE: Why breakthrough COVID-19 infections don't mean the vaccine isn't working

Coronavirus cases are now at their highest point since early May, according to CDC data, with the U.S. average nearly quadrupling since June to 47,000 new cases a day, largely driven by the highly infectious delta variant, which now accounts for more than 83% of new cases nationwide.

Virus-related hospitalizations have also increased, with more than 27,000 patients hospitalized around the country, though that number is still significantly lower than in January, when over 125,000 patients were receiving care at one time.

According to the White House COVID-19 Task Force, severe breakthrough infections remain rare, and nearly all of these hospitalized patients -- 97% -- are unvaccinated.

Earlier this week, the popular summer destination of Provincetown, Massachusetts, was thrust into the spotlight after at least 551 COVID-19 infections were confirmed, many of them breakthroughs, following a busy July Fourth weekend.

Confirmed cases among Massachusetts residents, stemming from the Provincetown cluster, have been found to be predominantly symptomatic, with 69% of affected individuals reported to be fully vaccinated, according to local officials. Apart from three hospitalizations -- two in state and one out of state -- symptoms from cases associated with this cluster are known to be mild and without complication, Alex Morse, the town manager for Provincetown, said.

"The transmissibility of the delta variant raises the likelihood of sporadic 'super spreader' events among vaccinated people, especially when indoors and in close proximity without masks. These events raise the risk to those unvaccinated while the vast majority of the breakthrough cases will be mild or asymptomatic," Brownstein added.

MORE: Cape Cod COVID-19 cluster grows to more than 130 infected, prompting renewed mitigation efforts
Statewide in Massachusetts, state health officials report there have been at least 5,166 breakthrough infections as of July 17. More than 4,800 of these infections resulted in no hospitalization or death. A total of 80 of these breakthrough cases resulted in death, representing 0.0015% of individuals fully vaccinated -- and 272 cases resulted in hospitalization, representing 0.006% of those fully vaccinated.

The hospitalizations and deaths that do occur among fully vaccinated individuals tend to occur among people who are older or those with serious underlying medical conditions for whom the vaccines may have reduced efficacy, experts said.

Ankoor Shah, principal senior deputy director at the Washington D.C. Department of Health, said during a Thursday press conference that the district had 200 fully vaccinated breakthrough cases of COVID-19, out of a total record nearly 376,000 fully vaccinated people, representing “only point .05 percent, which just strengthens our confidence on how great these vaccines are.”

And in New Jersey, the total number of breakthrough cases, so far, is 5,678 out of a total of 4.8 million people vaccinated by July 12, according to state data. Forty-nine fully vaccinated individuals have died as a result of COVID-19.

"It is important to point out that 49 deaths due to COVID-19 among 4.8 million fully vaccinated state residents is slightly greater than one in 100,000 fully vaccinated individuals. That means vaccines are about 99.999% effective in preventing deaths due to COVID-19," Dr. Ed Lifshitz of the New Jersey Department of Health said in a statement to ABC News.

Additionally, 27 of these individuals had pre-existing conditions, Lifshitz said, and many had more than one condition.

Of concern to some experts is the decline in daily COVID-19 tests, which makes it more difficult to track the spread of the virus. The nation is now recording just under 600,000 COVID-19 tests a day, which has ticked up slightly in recent weeks but is still much lower than at the country's peak in January, when U.S. was recording over 2 million tests a day. In addition, the CDC has, since May, ceased reporting asymptomatic or mild breakthrough cases.

According to Brownstein, the combination of the overall testing decline, the mild nondescript nature of breakthrough infections, and the general perception that vaccines are protective, means that any count of breakthrough infections is likely an underestimate.

MORE: How 3 counties reached the highest COVID-19 vaccination rates in their states
Hence, he said, “given the efficacy of the vaccines, we recognize that even more cases will be asymptomatic, so these data only show part of the story. While asymptomatic cases are not of clinical relevance, they do help understand important patterns of transmission in the community.”

Experts concur that even with lower case levels than this past winter, the pandemic is not yet over, and it is critical to track the disease in order to attempt to slow its spread.

In a recent editorial in the Journal of the American Medical Association, experts urged the CDC to “re-energize” its testing services in light of the highly transmissible delta variant, “because without vigorous testing, the nation cannot be sure whether declining cases are a function of decreased numbers of infections or reduced numbers of tests.”

“As long as the virus is circulating, with or without causing illness, it can change and mutate, including into new strains that may be even harder to control,” Samuel V. Scarpino, managing director of pathogen surveillance at the Rockefeller Foundation, told ABC News.

“To get ahead of the pandemic we need to track the virus more closely and collect high-quality information on how and where COVID-19 is changing," he said. "This high-quality, detailed information is crucial for COVID-19 and future pandemics."

Symptomatic breakthrough COVID-19 infections rare, CDC data estimates
 
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billwanhua

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Vaccines prevent more than 90% of severe disease, but may be less effective at preventing infection, they said, making community spread among the vaccinated more likely. The document said 35,000 symptomatic infections are occurring per week among 162 million vaccinated Americans.
在162M打了疫苗的人当中,每周有症状感染的感染大概3万5,,这个每周突破很高。

这两篇报道相差非常大,CDC疫苗突破感染,包括无症状患者,比例:5916 / 161 millions = 37 / million. ABC的报道,有症状突破疫苗感染比例:153,000 / 156 millions = 981 / million,
这两个报道矛盾,有可能因为Delta最近的数字是每周有3.5万有症状感染 among 162 million vaccinated Americans.
也有可能这个记者报道写的文章不清楚,不是 among 162 million vaccinated Americans. 而是 among all Americans。

另外那个报道说153,000 / 156 millions 肯定是早期的不包含Delta的数据因为现在的vaccined是162M
 
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lindamy

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这两个报道矛盾,有可能因为Delta最近的数字是每周有3.5万有症状感染 among 162 million vaccinated Americans.
也有可能这个记者报道写的文章不清楚,不是 among 162 million vaccinated Americans. 而是 among all Americans
With more than 156 million Americans fully vaccinated, nationwide, approximately 153,000 symptomatic breakthrough cases are estimated to have occurred as of last week, representing approximately 0.098% of those fully vaccinated,

上面这句话不是全美国人的意思吧?分明是写着156million 完全免疫人群中,发生的有症状的breakthrough.假设这个数据属实,这是将近千分之一的突破比例。
 

茶马盐铁

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数据摞数据, 其实真的没有太大意义。

但是总体来说结论是很明显的。 那就是中国所谓的疫情根本不严重, 近乎于零。 完全没必要花这么大的代价去追求所谓的清零。

如果说, 一切为了人民的话, 那就更没必要搞这么大规模的隔离和封锁了。 现在的感染情况与重症率, 根本不足以让人民禁锢自己。 一切恢复正常, 尽量多打疫苗, 谨慎观察, 尽量收治。 就足够了。

中国现在的做法就是因噎废食的典型。
 

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来自麻省未发表的数据显示,无论有没有接种疫苗,Delta感染者的病毒载量是差不多的。接种疫苗后的感染者有可能会像没有接种疫苗的感染者那样,具有传播病毒、感染他人的能力。而在Delta之前,普遍认为接种疫苗后的感染者病毒载量较低、基本不传播。
如果这个证实,Albert还不检测,对阳性患者不隔离,那就是超级群体免疫
 
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