群体免疫接种率

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非也非也

疫苗+自然康复免疫力

总和超过90%就可以。

mRNA如果普及度到了90%。再加上30%的天然抗体。。。

群体免疫是可能的。

假设疫苗有效率80%, 天然抗体有效率70%。

90%*80%+30*70%=93%

就可以了。
所以开放是必须的
 

lindamy

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那现在delta的R0是多少?
1627678588552.png

1627677962539.png

这里有些安省病毒和变种统计数据。

我的理解Rt ,也许等于Re,是病毒的传播率,阳性率是也测试数量相关的。橙色的图,4月以后以Delta为主,Rt 也没有超过1.3.

 
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燕麦粥周

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CDC Alarmed: 74% of Cases in Cape Cod Cluster Were Among the Vaxxed - News Azi

During July 10–26, using travel history data from the state COVID-19 surveillance system, MA DPH identified a cluster of cases among Massachusetts residents. Additional cases were identified by local health jurisdictions through case investigation. COVID-19 cases were matched with the state immunization registry. A cluster-associated case was defined as receipt of a positive SARS-CoV-2 test (nucleic acid amplification or antigen) result ≤14 days after travel to or residence in the town in Barnstable County since July 3. COVID-19 vaccine breakthrough cases were those in fully vaccinated Massachusetts residents (those with documentation from the state immunization registry of completion of COVID-19 vaccination as recommended by the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices,† ≥14 days before exposure). Specimens were submitted for whole genome sequencing§ to either the Massachusetts State Public Health Laboratory or the Broad Institute of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Harvard University. Ct values were obtained for 211 specimens tested using a noncommercial real-time RT-PCR panel for SARS-CoV-2 performed under Emergency Use Authorization at the Broad Institute Clinical Research Sequencing Platform. On July 15, MA DPH issued the first of two Epidemic Information Exchange notifications to identify additional cases among residents of U.S. jurisdictions outside Massachusetts associated with recent travel to the town in Barnstable County during July 2021. This activity was reviewed by CDC and was conducted consistent with applicable federal law and CDC policy.¶

By July 26, a total of 469 COVID-19 cases were identified among Massachusetts residents; dates of positive specimen collection ranged from July 6 through July 25 (Figure 1). Most cases occurred in males (85%); median age was 40 years (range = <1–76 years). Nearly one half (199; 42%) reported residence in the town in Barnstable County. Overall, 346 (74%) persons with COVID-19 reported symptoms consistent with COVID-19.** Five were hospitalized; as of July 27, no deaths were reported. One hospitalized patient (age range = 50–59 years) was not vaccinated and had multiple underlying medical conditions.†† Four additional, fully vaccinated patients§§ aged 20–70 years were also hospitalized, two of whom had underlying medical conditions. Initial genomic sequencing of specimens from 133 patients identified the Delta variant in 119 (89%) cases and the Delta AY.3 sublineage in one (1%) case; genomic sequencing was not successful for 13 (10%) specimens.

Among the 469 cases in Massachusetts residents, 346 (74%) occurred in persons who were fully vaccinated; of these, 301 (87%) were male, with a median age of 42 years. Vaccine products received by persons experiencing breakthrough infections were Pfizer-BioNTech (159; 46%), Moderna (131; 38%), and Janssen (56; 16%); among fully vaccinated persons in the Massachusetts general population, 56% had received Pfizer-BioNTech, 38% had received Moderna, and 7% had received Janssen vaccine products. Among persons with breakthrough infection, 274 (79%) reported signs or symptoms, with the most common being cough, headache, sore throat, myalgia, and fever. Among fully vaccinated symptomatic persons, the median interval from completion of ≥14 days after the final vaccine dose to symptom onset was 86 days (range = 6–178 days). Among persons with breakthrough infection, four (1.2%) were hospitalized, and no deaths were reported. Real-time RT-PCR Ct values in specimens from 127 fully vaccinated patients (median = 22.77) were similar to those among 84 patients who were unvaccinated, not fully vaccinated, or whose vaccination status was unknown (median = 21.54) (Figure 2).

这个报告里指出,469个感染者里有364个(74%)是完全接种过的,没接种或接种一剂的患者只有26%。469个患者里有5个住院,4个是完全接种者,1个没接种任何疫苗,至今无死亡病例。
 
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billwanhua

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CDC Alarmed: 74% of Cases in Cape Cod Cluster Were Among the Vaxxed - News Azi

During July 10–26, using travel history data from the state COVID-19 surveillance system, MA DPH identified a cluster of cases among Massachusetts residents. Additional cases were identified by local health jurisdictions through case investigation. COVID-19 cases were matched with the state immunization registry. A cluster-associated case was defined as receipt of a positive SARS-CoV-2 test (nucleic acid amplification or antigen) result ≤14 days after travel to or residence in the town in Barnstable County since July 3. COVID-19 vaccine breakthrough cases were those in fully vaccinated Massachusetts residents (those with documentation from the state immunization registry of completion of COVID-19 vaccination as recommended by the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices,† ≥14 days before exposure). Specimens were submitted for whole genome sequencing§ to either the Massachusetts State Public Health Laboratory or the Broad Institute of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Harvard University. Ct values were obtained for 211 specimens tested using a noncommercial real-time RT-PCR panel for SARS-CoV-2 performed under Emergency Use Authorization at the Broad Institute Clinical Research Sequencing Platform. On July 15, MA DPH issued the first of two Epidemic Information Exchange notifications to identify additional cases among residents of U.S. jurisdictions outside Massachusetts associated with recent travel to the town in Barnstable County during July 2021. This activity was reviewed by CDC and was conducted consistent with applicable federal law and CDC policy.¶

By July 26, a total of 469 COVID-19 cases were identified among Massachusetts residents; dates of positive specimen collection ranged from July 6 through July 25 (Figure 1). Most cases occurred in males (85%); median age was 40 years (range = <1–76 years). Nearly one half (199; 42%) reported residence in the town in Barnstable County. Overall, 346 (74%) persons with COVID-19 reported symptoms consistent with COVID-19.** Five were hospitalized; as of July 27, no deaths were reported. One hospitalized patient (age range = 50–59 years) was not vaccinated and had multiple underlying medical conditions.†† Four additional, fully vaccinated patients§§ aged 20–70 years were also hospitalized, two of whom had underlying medical conditions. Initial genomic sequencing of specimens from 133 patients identified the Delta variant in 119 (89%) cases and the Delta AY.3 sublineage in one (1%) case; genomic sequencing was not successful for 13 (10%) specimens.

Among the 469 cases in Massachusetts residents, 346 (74%) occurred in persons who were fully vaccinated; of these, 301 (87%) were male, with a median age of 42 years. Vaccine products received by persons experiencing breakthrough infections were Pfizer-BioNTech (159; 46%), Moderna (131; 38%), and Janssen (56; 16%); among fully vaccinated persons in the Massachusetts general population, 56% had received Pfizer-BioNTech, 38% had received Moderna, and 7% had received Janssen vaccine products. Among persons with breakthrough infection, 274 (79%) reported signs or symptoms, with the most common being cough, headache, sore throat, myalgia, and fever. Among fully vaccinated symptomatic persons, the median interval from completion of ≥14 days after the final vaccine dose to symptom onset was 86 days (range = 6–178 days). Among persons with breakthrough infection, four (1.2%) were hospitalized, and no deaths were reported. Real-time RT-PCR Ct values in specimens from 127 fully vaccinated patients (median = 22.77) were similar to those among 84 patients who were unvaccinated, not fully vaccinated, or whose vaccination status was unknown (median = 21.54) (Figure 2).

这个报告里指出,469个感染者里有364个(74%)是完全接种过的,没接种或接种一剂的患者只有26%。469个患者里有5个住院,4个是完全接种者,1个没接种任何疫苗,至今无死亡病例。
变数太多了,不能只解读数字。
接种率是多少? 接种、没接种的人分别年纪是多少?都知道没有接种的年轻人可能比接种的老年人更不容易重症。

只有大规模的数据才能充分解读,还是以色列的数据最有意义。
 

c8848

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如果全民接种率低,病毒危害参看印度。全民接种率高,没接种的也受益于接种者对病毒传染的抑制。
 

c8848

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传染性那么强,那么印度是如何把感染人数压下来的呢?
 

lindamy

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7 hr 3 min ago

A CDC document warns the Delta variant appears to spread like chickenpox. Here's what that looks like.​

From CNN's Paul LeBlanc, Maggie Fox and Elizabeth Cohen

The Delta coronavirus variant surging across the United States appears to cause more severe illness and spread as easily as chickenpox, according to an internal document from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The document — a slide presentation — outlines unpublished data that shows fully vaccinated people might spread the Delta variant at the same rate as unvaccinated people.

CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky confirmed the authenticity of the document, which was first reported by The Washington Post.

The CDC is scheduled to publish data today that will back Walensky's controversial decision to change guidance for fully vaccinated people.

The Delta variant's comparison to the chickenpox has prompted questions about how easily it can spread within a group of people.

Here's a look at how the Delta variant's spread compares to the early Covid-19 strain, according the CDC:

1627689124252.png
 

lindamy

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CDC Alarmed: 74% of Cases in Cape Cod Cluster Were Among the Vaxxed - News Azi

During July 10–26, using travel history data from the state COVID-19 surveillance system, MA DPH identified a cluster of cases among Massachusetts residents. Additional cases were identified by local health jurisdictions through case investigation. COVID-19 cases were matched with the state immunization registry. A cluster-associated case was defined as receipt of a positive SARS-CoV-2 test (nucleic acid amplification or antigen) result ≤14 days after travel to or residence in the town in Barnstable County since July 3. COVID-19 vaccine breakthrough cases were those in fully vaccinated Massachusetts residents (those with documentation from the state immunization registry of completion of COVID-19 vaccination as recommended by the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices,† ≥14 days before exposure). Specimens were submitted for whole genome sequencing§ to either the Massachusetts State Public Health Laboratory or the Broad Institute of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Harvard University. Ct values were obtained for 211 specimens tested using a noncommercial real-time RT-PCR panel for SARS-CoV-2 performed under Emergency Use Authorization at the Broad Institute Clinical Research Sequencing Platform. On July 15, MA DPH issued the first of two Epidemic Information Exchange notifications to identify additional cases among residents of U.S. jurisdictions outside Massachusetts associated with recent travel to the town in Barnstable County during July 2021. This activity was reviewed by CDC and was conducted consistent with applicable federal law and CDC policy.¶

By July 26, a total of 469 COVID-19 cases were identified among Massachusetts residents; dates of positive specimen collection ranged from July 6 through July 25 (Figure 1). Most cases occurred in males (85%); median age was 40 years (range = <1–76 years). Nearly one half (199; 42%) reported residence in the town in Barnstable County. Overall, 346 (74%) persons with COVID-19 reported symptoms consistent with COVID-19.** Five were hospitalized; as of July 27, no deaths were reported. One hospitalized patient (age range = 50–59 years) was not vaccinated and had multiple underlying medical conditions.†† Four additional, fully vaccinated patients§§ aged 20–70 years were also hospitalized, two of whom had underlying medical conditions. Initial genomic sequencing of specimens from 133 patients identified the Delta variant in 119 (89%) cases and the Delta AY.3 sublineage in one (1%) case; genomic sequencing was not successful for 13 (10%) specimens.

Among the 469 cases in Massachusetts residents, 346 (74%) occurred in persons who were fully vaccinated; of these, 301 (87%) were male, with a median age of 42 years. Vaccine products received by persons experiencing breakthrough infections were Pfizer-BioNTech (159; 46%), Moderna (131; 38%), and Janssen (56; 16%); among fully vaccinated persons in the Massachusetts general population, 56% had received Pfizer-BioNTech, 38% had received Moderna, and 7% had received Janssen vaccine products. Among persons with breakthrough infection, 274 (79%) reported signs or symptoms, with the most common being cough, headache, sore throat, myalgia, and fever. Among fully vaccinated symptomatic persons, the median interval from completion of ≥14 days after the final vaccine dose to symptom onset was 86 days (range = 6–178 days). Among persons with breakthrough infection, four (1.2%) were hospitalized, and no deaths were reported. Real-time RT-PCR Ct values in specimens from 127 fully vaccinated patients (median = 22.77) were similar to those among 84 patients who were unvaccinated, not fully vaccinated, or whose vaccination status was unknown (median = 21.54) (Figure 2).

这个报告里指出,469个感染者里有364个(74%)是完全接种过的,没接种或接种一剂的患者只有26%。469个患者里有5个住院,4个是完全接种者,1个没接种任何疫苗,至今无死亡病例。
5 hr 44 min ago

CNN's Sanjay Gupta says CDC study shows Delta variant is "really contagious," but vaccines work​

CNN's chief medical correspondent Sanjay Gupta broke down the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's new study about the Delta Covid-19 variant spread— and what its findings could mean for vaccinated and unvaccinated Americans across the country.

"The idea that people who were vaccinated still were far less likely to develop severe symptoms, hospitalizations, deaths, all the things that we've talked about since the vaccines were first authorized, remain true. The vaccines work, in that regard, but the idea that someone [who is vaccinated] could test positive and still develop enough virus in their nose and mouth to transmit is really what this data is showing," Gupta told CNN's Ana Cabrera following the release of the study.

The study, published by CDC Friday, describes 469 Massachusetts residents who were infected in a July outbreak in Barnstable County, which includes the summer vacation destination Provincetown. No deaths were reported among them.

About 74% — or 346 cases —had been fully vaccinated. Of those cases, 79% reported symptoms. Genetically sequenced cases revealed the Delta variant as the main culprit.

"I still want to reiterate just how effective the vaccines can be at doing the things that people I think looked for them to do the most. Prevent severe hospitalization and death. But it is clear that this Delta variant is far more transmissible and as a result of that, probably even vaccinated people are transmitting this at a higher rate than we thought," Gupta said.

In terms of what comes next, Gupta said this study will likely spark new questions about preventative measures, including masking and when Americans may need a booster shot.

"They're saying this is really, really contagious. So even if there's not a lot of viral transmission now, it's likely to increase, because of the contagiousness of this and also because we're going into cooler and dryer weather where we know virus tend to transmit more easily anyway," Gupta said. "So, I think there's going to be some changes that come about here, with regard to those recommendations, both on boosters and masking, you know, throughout the country."

On Tuesday, Walensky previewed these findings while unveiling guidance that people in areas with "high" or "substantial" Covid-19 transmission should resume wearing masks indoors. Over 75% of the US population live in these areas.

Here's a look at some of the key findings of the study:

10bef47f-f150-4900-a834-4fb429ab7321.jpg


d5c6e73a-18b7-46be-b2a4-534af9f2303e.jpg


Read more about the CDC study here.

CNN's Michael Nedelman contributed reporting to this post.
 

billwanhua

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传染性那么强,那么印度是如何把感染人数压下来的呢?
印度人年轻,完全靠身体,然后有报道实际死亡和感染人数比官方高一个数量级,那里天气炎热也是一个因素。印度第一波感染了很多人,等于打了一针灭活,但是报道很多人感染了二次,CNN还访问了一个人说自己感染了三次,然后他说周围很多人都重复感染。


但愿英国这个是好消息。
 

ASSISTANT

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病毒也有生命周期。现在已经是强弩之末。印度就是最好的例子。历史上从没有哪次瘟疫一次持续3年以上。
 

billwanhua

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这里有些安省病毒和变种统计数据。

我的理解Rt ,也许等于Re,是病毒的传播率,阳性率是也测试数量相关的。橙色的图,4月以后以Delta为主,Rt 也没有超过1.3.

你说的这个RT/Re是目前社会各种预防措施后的传染率,低于1,病患就会减少,这个跟很多控制有关,比喻封锁之前,Re很高,每天病人增加很快,封锁以后,Re就减低。
而R0是自然界病毒没有任何控制的情况下的传播率,跟封锁口罩没有关系,是个常数
 

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R0

这个0,就是这么定义的。
你说的这个RT/Re是目前社会各种预防措施后的传染率,低于1,病患就会减少,这个跟很多控制有关,比喻封锁之前,Re很高,每天病人增加很快,封锁以后,Re就减低。
而R0是自然界病毒没有任何控制的情况下的传播率,跟封锁口罩没有关系,是个常数
 
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